As some of you know, I have been involved in state politics all my life starting as a volunteer for my father, George A. Terry, who served in both the State House and Senate. Later I worked as paid staff for the 1986 Winfield Dunn for Governor election. So, this article is strictly my opinion about what I think could happen next year based on the political environment in Tennessee today and not when the election will really take place, which is the true test.

Tennessee used to be a state that was controlled by “Yellow Dog Democrats” - people who would vote for a yellow dog before they would vote for a Republican. I know what Yellow Dog Democrats are because I married one, a Democrat that is, not a yellow dog. The way things have gone for Democrats in Tennessee lately, my neighbor’s yellow lab is more fun to be around on Election Day than my husband Larry is.

Republicans pulled off a coup by electing Senator Beth Halteman Harwell as State Party Chairman for the Tennessee Republican Party. Senator Harwell is a savvy campaigner; she knows how to use commercials, go door-to-door and is a very effective fundraiser. You can be sure she will be guiding her party’s nominee on issues that will appeal to women voters in next year’s governor’s race.

What about the Tennessee Democrats and women? Democrats here are already organized. Many women who know how to win elections tried to help Vice President Gore in last year’s presidential election and despite the fact that Gore did not carry Tennessee, women who worked in his campaign know how to communicate on issues that are especially important to women. I know that former Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen, former state senator Andy Womack and former chair of the Tennessee Board of Regents Charles Smith are all aggressively recruiting these Democratic women activists as they battle to win the Democrat primary for next year’s governor’s race.

One thing I am sure of is that both parties realize they must aggressively capture the votes of women. More and more women, just like men, are labeling themselves as Independent rather than Republican or Democrat and times have really changed in our state.

So why do things look so rosy for the Republicans today in next year’s governor’s race? Republicans are still elated by the trouncing George W. Bush gave Al Gore last year when he defeated Gore by a wide and decisive margin in Tennessee for President. Bush operatives are already working to keep Tennessee in their side of the column come the next election, especially if Gore decides to challenge Bush again. That means President Bush will make many appearances in Tennessee next year to solidify his base.

Loyal Democrats had already talked of former Vice President Gore staffing an office here in Nashville with Tennessee operatives who knew the ins and outs of every county in Tennessee, so that Gore would carry Tennessee in the next presidential election. These loyalists said Gore’s involvement would help rebuild a statewide Democratic Party and his involvement would help their gubernatorial and senate candidates win next year.

But that is not to be because Fred Thompson is running and is expected to easily win his re-election to the United States Senate. I am not even sure the Democrats will field a candidate to challenge Thompson (although there are rumors that former Ned McWherter protegee Jim Hall may return to Tennessee from a stint in D.C. and run). Perennial candidate John Jay Hooker has said he is running against Thompson but the state Democratic Party does not seem to take Hooker seriously. Jim Hall might run what would surely be an uphill race against Senator Thompson in order to gain statewide recognition so that he would be the leading candidate for the next statewide race.

Some powerful women in Tennessee have been asked by Democrats to challenge Senator Thompson. However, Thompson appears to be as popular with women voters in this state as he is with men. So, the talk about attorney Margaret Behm, Sheriff Gayle Ray and Chancellor Carol McCoy running against him appears to be just that, rumors so far, and not facts. Just look at their credentials and I think you will agree with me that the Democrats should have aggressively recruited at least one of these women to challenge Thompson for the United States Senate.

Just picture the upcoming commercials and billboards for the Republican for governor – the popular Senator Fred Thompson holding up the hand on one side of Hilleary or Henry and President Bush on the other. That photo op be will be hard for any Democrat to beat. It is a dream team come true for the Republicans and a living nightmare for the Democrats. However, my sources tell me that the Democrats plan to plaster billboards all over the state with Governor Don Sundquist embracing Van Hilleary if Hilleary wins the primary. The caption underneath will be “Are you ready for anther Republican Congressman to be Tennessee’s Governor?”

The War we are battling today could play two different ways in next year’s elections. If we are still at war next year and most Americans still support the way President Bush is directing the war efforts most people will not want change, which will work in favor of the Republicans. Van Hilleary is a veteran of the Gulf War and if we are still in a state of War, the fact he is a veteran will work in his favor. Don’t forget Tennessee is called the Volunteer State, not because of our university’s football team but because of the number of our citizens who volunteer for military service. But, if President George W. Bush loses his support in the war efforts, people in Tennessee may vote for change, which would help the Democrats.

How will the candidates reach out to women voters? What issues will encourage people to get out and vote? Will a female Democrat emerge to challenge Fred Thompson for the Senate seat? If she does, will that help the Democrats elect a governor?

Will former Vice President Al Gore hire Tennesseans to run his office in Nashville who know how to win elections and will he be powerful in Tennessee? Will Gore be able to persuade Tennesseans to elect a Democrat to the Governor’s office? Will my friend Dave Cooley, one of Tennessee’s most brilliant campaign strategists, pull off the victory of the year for his candidate Phil Bredesen? Who knows what will really happen, but for us politicos, it is fun to speculate.

Saralee Terry Woods is President of BookMan/BookWoman Books